Red Deer’s Homelessness Rate Surpasses Toronto’s as Affordable Housing Shortage Deepens

Red Deer is facing a growing homelessness challenge that has reached a level rarely associated with a midsized Canadian city, with new research showing that its per capita homelessness rate was higher than Toronto’s in 2024.

According to research from the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness, Red Deer recorded 66.02 people experiencing homelessness for every 10,000 residents during its 2024 Point in Time count. Toronto recorded a rate of 47 per 10,000 during the same year.

The figures have drawn attention to the growing housing pressures facing Red Deer and other midsized communities across Alberta and Canada.

While Toronto has a much larger homeless population in absolute numbers, the comparison becomes striking when population size is taken into account. Red Deer’s smaller population means that the number of people without stable housing represents a considerably larger share of its residents.

The situation has improved somewhat since the 2024 counts. Red Deer recorded 645 people experiencing homelessness in 2025, down from 747 the previous year. Toronto also saw a decline, with 12,196 people counted in 2025 compared with 15,418 in 2024.

The per capita homelessness rate subsequently fell to 55.88 in Red Deer and 37.28 in Toronto.

Despite the decline, housing advocates say the underlying problem remains serious.

Tim Richter, president and CEO of the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness, said Red Deer’s homelessness rate had increased dramatically between 2018 and 2024. He pointed to population growth, declining rental availability and rising costs in the lowest-cost segment of the housing market as major factors.

The Alliance examined 36 Canadian communities where comparable Point in Time homelessness counts and rental market information were available. Its research found a strong relationship between rising homelessness and the shrinking availability of affordable rental housing.

Red Deer provides a particularly clear example of that relationship.

Data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation showed that vacancy rates for the lowest-cost rental housing in Red Deer dropped from 10.8 per cent to just 1.6 per cent over the seven-year period examined.

That represents a substantial reduction in the number of inexpensive rental homes available to people with the lowest incomes.

At the same time, average rents in the lowest-cost category increased from about $823 to $925.

While that increase was relatively modest compared with some other parts of Canada’s housing market, advocates say the combination of higher rents and dramatically lower vacancy rates created an increasingly difficult environment for people already struggling financially.

The problem is therefore not simply whether Red Deer is considered an affordable city overall.

Average rental prices can make a community appear relatively inexpensive compared with larger Canadian cities, but those figures do not necessarily reflect the experience of people looking for the cheapest available homes.

For low-income residents, the most important question is whether an affordable unit is actually available.

When vacancies disappear from the lowest-cost segment, people with limited incomes can find themselves competing for a shrinking number of homes. Those who cannot secure housing may turn to emergency shelters, temporary accommodation or, in the worst cases, the street.

Richter has argued that homelessness should therefore be understood primarily as a housing issue rather than solely through the lens of addiction, mental health or emergency shelter capacity.

Emergency shelters remain important because they provide immediate protection for people without a home. But shelters alone cannot create permanent housing.

The research suggests that increasing the supply of deeply affordable housing must be part of any long-term strategy to reduce homelessness.

Local officials acknowledge that Red Deer has experienced an increase in the number of people without stable housing relative to its population.

Bobby-Jo Stannard, the city’s Safe and Health Communities manager, said the increase has been visible both through Point in Time counts and through the number of people entering the city’s homelessness response system.

The trend is not unique to Red Deer. Midsized communities across Alberta and other parts of Canada have increasingly faced pressure from rising housing costs, limited rental supply and growing populations.

One challenge for smaller communities is the economics of housing construction.

Developers may find it easier to build large projects in major metropolitan markets where there is a larger population base and stronger economies of scale. Smaller communities can face greater challenges attracting investment, securing infrastructure and making affordable housing projects financially viable.

Red Deer officials say they have been working to streamline development processes and improve cooperation with builders and other housing partners.

The city has also received a boost through federal funding. About $3 million in federal funding was recently announced to support affordable housing construction in Red Deer following advocacy by city officials.

Housing organizations say considerably more investment will be required.

Darcy Mykytyshyn, CEO of the Red Deer Homeless Foundation, said the organization’s previous research identified a major shortage of appropriate and affordable housing in the community.

The foundation estimated Red Deer’s affordable housing deficit at approximately 3,625 homes in 2024 and projected that the shortage could reach about 4,482 homes by 2031 if current trends continue.

The shortage affects more than one part of the housing system.

People leaving emergency shelters need somewhere affordable to go. Residents in transitional or supportive housing need opportunities to move into more independent accommodation. When those pathways are blocked, housing units remain occupied longer, creating pressure throughout the entire system.

This creates what housing advocates describe as a bottleneck.

A person who is ready to leave an emergency shelter may remain there because no suitable affordable housing is available. That prevents another person from accessing the shelter space. Similar problems can occur in supportive and transitional housing.

The result can be a chain reaction in which shortages at one level of the housing system affect people across the entire community.

Red Deer Homeless Foundation has also supported Project Nexus, a proposed 200-bed emergency shelter that received city council approval earlier this year.

However, advocates emphasize that a new shelter should not be viewed as a complete solution.

Emergency accommodation can provide immediate safety, but long-term progress requires a broader housing continuum that includes emergency shelters, transitional accommodation, supportive housing, social housing, affordable rentals and attainable home ownership.

The debate is also challenging the assumption that private market housing alone can meet every housing need in a community.

People with very low incomes may remain unable to afford even moderately priced rental units regardless of how much conventional housing is constructed.

That is why housing organizations are calling for stronger government involvement and sustained investment in deeply affordable housing.

Richter has also called for greater assistance with rental costs in the short term, including an expanded Canada Housing Benefit that could help low-income households remain housed while additional affordable homes are developed.

In the longer term, housing advocates say federal, provincial and municipal governments will need to work together to increase the supply of affordable homes.

Red Deer’s experience highlights a broader national challenge. Canada’s housing crisis is increasingly affecting communities beyond the country’s largest metropolitan areas.

For years, discussions about homelessness have often focused heavily on major cities such as Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary. The latest data shows that midsized communities can experience equally serious problems when measured against their population.

Red Deer may have far fewer people experiencing homelessness than Toronto in absolute terms, but its higher per capita rate demonstrates how severe the problem can become when a community has limited affordable housing available to people at the lowest end of the income scale.

The decline in homelessness recorded between 2024 and 2025 offers some encouragement, but local officials and housing advocates caution against interpreting the reduction as evidence that the underlying crisis has been solved.

With population growth continuing and affordable rental vacancies remaining under pressure, Red Deer faces a significant challenge in ensuring that residents do not fall into homelessness simply because they cannot find a home they can afford.

The city’s experience also offers a warning to other midsized Canadian communities.

Without sufficient affordable housing, even communities considered relatively inexpensive can experience rapidly worsening homelessness. The evidence from Red Deer suggests that preventing the problem will require more than emergency shelters. It will require sustained investment in the full housing system and cooperation among municipal, provincial and federal governments.

For Red Deer, the challenge now is not only helping people who are already homeless but ensuring that enough affordable homes are available to prevent more residents from losing housing in the first place.

Courtesy: reddeeradvocate