Alberta Referendum Campaign Enters Final 60 Day Push as Pro Canada and Independence Groups Mobilize

With only 60 days remaining before Albertans vote on a referendum that could have major consequences for the province’s political future, organizations on both sides of the debate are shifting their focus toward rallies, advertising, volunteer recruitment and voter turnout.

The referendum is scheduled for October 19 and will present Albertans with 10 questions. Nine deal with issues including immigration and constitutional reform, while the most politically consequential question asks whether Alberta should remain part of Canada or proceed toward another binding referendum on separation.

As voting day approaches, campaign organizations on both sides increasingly believe the contest will be decided less by dramatic changes in public opinion and more by which side succeeds in bringing its supporters to the polls.

Polling over recent years has generally shown support for Alberta independence remaining below support for staying within Canada. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears relatively small, meaning campaign organizations have limited time to persuade people who have not yet made up their minds.

Longtime Alberta pollster Janet Brown has described the referendum as increasingly becoming a question of voter mobilization.

The remaining weeks are therefore expected to bring a significant increase in campaign activity across Alberta, with competing organizations preparing rallies, advertising campaigns, volunteer networks and get out the vote operations.

Independence Campaign Targets Turnout

Let Alberta Decide, one of the leading organizations supporting Alberta independence, acknowledges that it faces a difficult campaign based on current polling.

Keith Wilson, one of the group’s co leaders, has argued that some Albertans who support independence may be reluctant to express that position publicly. Nevertheless, the organization is preparing for a campaign in which it assumes the polling advantage remains with the pro Canada side.

The group has raised more than $415,000 in contributions as of August 13, making it the leading third party advertiser among the organizations involved in the referendum campaign.

Let Alberta Decide plans to hold a major rally at the Alberta Legislature on October 17, just two days before the vote.

The organization is also preparing a traditional voter mobilization operation, including transportation assistance for supporters who may have difficulty reaching polling stations.

The campaign is paying particular attention to different regions and demographic groups.

Support for independence has generally been stronger in rural Alberta than in the province’s major urban centres. As a result, the organization plans to increase its activity in Calgary and Edmonton while also targeting communities such as Lethbridge and Lloydminster.

Its social media strategy is also being tailored toward specific groups.

Messages are being developed for younger Albertans facing financial pressures such as high housing costs, while other messaging is aimed at older voters concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren.

The campaign expects its activity to intensify as October 19 approaches.

Pro Canada Campaign Builds Provincial Network

On the other side of the debate, Forever Canadian is working to strengthen its provincewide organization in support of keeping Alberta within Canada.

The organization says it has volunteers in municipalities across the province and plans to continue travelling through Alberta with its Unity Bus.

Volunteers have been distributing lawn signs and other campaign materials while preparing for a series of rallies over the coming months.

Organizer Thomas Lukaszuk has compared the current stage of the campaign to the second period of a hockey game, emphasizing that organizations supporting Canadian unity have already spent more than a year preparing for the referendum.

Forever Canadian says more than 18,000 Albertans have volunteered to support its efforts.

For now, the organization says its priority is promoting Canadian identity and pride rather than moving entirely into an election style get out the vote operation.

Lukaszuk says the campaign has the resources to shift toward voter mobilization when necessary, but believes its current approach of emphasizing Canadian unity is producing strong results.

The campaign’s immediate focus therefore remains expanding its volunteer network, fulfilling requests for campaign signs and reaching communities across Alberta.

Independence Supporters Prepare Final Push

The Alberta Prosperity Project and Stay Free Alberta, which played a central role in the citizen initiative seeking a referendum on Alberta separation, view the October vote as the culmination of years of political organizing.

Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, says the next 60 days will represent the final stage of that effort.

The organization plans to encourage supporters to use advance voting opportunities while continuing to hold town halls across Alberta.

A major rally is planned at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, which organizers have described as a gathering focused on concerns about the future of the province.

The campaign is also encouraging supporters to create personal voter networks involving friends, neighbours and family members.

The strategy is straightforward. Supporters are being encouraged to identify people who are likely to vote for independence and then take responsibility for ensuring those voters actually cast their ballots.

The organization believes turnout could be decisive if the overall balance of opinion remains relatively stable.

Pro Canada Campaign Faces Funding Challenge

Alberta’s Voice, another organization campaigning in favour of remaining in Canada, is focusing heavily on undecided voters.

The organization has reported more than $87,000 in contributions, making it one of the leading pro Confederation campaigns. However, its organizers say fundraising remains a major challenge compared with the resources available to leading independence groups.

Stephen Carter, president of Decide Campaigns and a leading figure behind Alberta’s Voice, says the group wants to conduct a significant advertising campaign through radio stations in Calgary, Edmonton and rural Alberta.

The campaign is also concentrating on voters who have not yet firmly decided how they will vote.

Although the undecided population is relatively small, campaign organizers believe these voters could ultimately determine the outcome.

Alberta’s Voice has set an ambitious objective of winning 75 per cent of the vote for remaining in Canada.

The group is also preparing a volunteer training program expected to begin in September. Its planned organization includes a system of local campaign captains who would contact voters by phone and email and encourage them to participate.

The campaign hopes to recruit as many as 100,000 people through this mobilization structure.

Turnout Could Become the Deciding Factor

With public opinion showing relatively limited movement over recent years, turnout is emerging as one of the most important factors in the referendum.

Supporters on both sides have strong incentives to make sure their own voters participate.

A low turnout could produce an outcome that does not necessarily reflect the preferences of the wider population if one side is more successful at organizing its supporters.

That is why both independence and pro Canada organizations are developing increasingly sophisticated voter contact operations.

Rallies will provide the public face of the campaigns, while behind the scenes volunteers are expected to spend much of the next two months contacting voters, distributing campaign materials and encouraging participation.

Advertising will also become more prominent as organizations seek to shape the final public conversation before voting day.

The campaign environment is likely to become increasingly intense as the October deadline approaches.

Mail and Advance Voting Add Another Dimension

Albertans will not necessarily have to wait until October 19 to cast their ballots.

Elections Alberta is allowing residents to vote by mail, although there is an earlier deadline for special ballots. Completed special ballot packages must be received before 5 p.m. on October 16.

The availability of advance and mail voting means campaign organizations must mobilize supporters earlier than election day itself.

This has encouraged both sides to build voter lists and identify supporters well before October 19.

For campaign organizers, knowing who intends to vote may be almost as important as knowing how they intend to vote.

A Referendum With Broader Political Consequences

Although the independence question is attracting the greatest attention, Albertans will be voting on 10 questions.

The nine other questions could also generate significant political debate, particularly those involving immigration and constitutional reform.

However, the question of Alberta’s future relationship with Canada has emerged as the issue most capable of transforming the province’s political landscape.

A vote to remain in Canada would provide the pro Confederation side with a strong mandate against separation. A vote supporting another binding separation referendum would open a much more complicated political and constitutional process.

For that reason, both camps view the October 19 vote as far more than a conventional political contest.

With 60 days remaining, the campaigns now face a limited window to organize their supporters, reach undecided voters and define the arguments that will dominate the final weeks.

The coming months are expected to feature increasingly visible rallies, growing advertising activity and an aggressive push to register, contact and mobilize voters.

Ultimately, the referendum may be decided not only by what Albertans believe about independence, but by how effectively each side can turn those beliefs into votes on October 19.

Courtesy: CBC