Calgary Shaw By Election Victory Could Face a Very Different Electoral Map in Alberta’s Next Election

The Alberta NDP’s victory in the Calgary Shaw byelection has put renewed attention on the province’s proposed electoral boundaries, with the riding potentially looking very different by the time Albertans next vote in a general election.

NDP candidate Kyle Campbell won Calgary Shaw earlier this week with about 46.6 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of UCP candidate Mike Derry, who received roughly 43 percent.

The result marked a change in a riding that had previously been held by the UCP and immediately generated discussion about what the result could mean for the next provincial election.

However, the current Calgary Shaw riding may not exist in its present form when that election takes place.

Alberta’s electoral boundaries process has produced two competing proposals this year, an unusual development in the province’s boundary review process. One proposal came from the majority of the Electoral Boundaries Commission, while another was submitted by its minority members.

The differences between the two maps are particularly significant in Calgary.

Under the commission majority proposal, Calgary Shaw would remain a riding, although its boundaries would be adjusted. A small section in the northwest would be transferred to Calgary Lougheed.

When the results of the recent byelection and the 2023 provincial election are applied to the proposed majority boundaries, Calgary Shaw would still have produced an NDP victory, although the margin would have been somewhat smaller.

The minority proposal presents a much more substantial change.

Under that map, Calgary Shaw would disappear entirely and its current territory would be divided among four electoral districts.

Approximately half of the existing riding would become part of a proposed Calgary South riding. Much of the remaining territory would be incorporated into Calgary De Winton, a proposed riding combining urban and rural communities and including portions of the current Highwood and Banff Kananaskis areas.

Other sections of Calgary Shaw would be transferred into Calgary Fish Creek and Calgary Lougheed.

A vote transposition exercise using the recent byelection and 2023 provincial election results produces a very different picture under that proposal. Based on those past results, each of the four proposed ridings receiving portions of Calgary Shaw would have recorded a UCP victory margin ranging from approximately eight to 17 percentage points.

Those figures, however, are not forecasts of what would happen in a future election.

Vote transposition is used to provide an estimate of how previous election results might have looked under different boundaries. It does not account for changes in candidates, campaigns, voter preferences, issues or political circumstances.

More importantly, neither of the two maps currently represents the final boundaries that Albertans will use at the next general election.

The province has already moved toward increasing the size of the legislature from 89 to 91 seats. In April, the Alberta government said an independent advisory panel would review the proposed boundaries and make changes where necessary as part of the process of establishing 91 electoral divisions.

The debate over the boundaries has become politically contentious, particularly around how urban and rural communities should be represented.

Justice Dallas Miller, who chaired the Electoral Boundaries Commission, had suggested that the legislature either adopt the majority report or increase the number of seats to 91.

The government chose the option of expanding the legislature and established a panel to undertake further work on the boundaries.

Premier Danielle Smith has said maintaining strong rural representation is an important consideration. Opposition politicians have questioned the government’s approach and raised concerns about whether political considerations could influence the redistribution process.

The central issue in any boundary review is representation.

Political scientist Jared Wesley of the University of Alberta has argued that electoral boundaries should be designed around population and communities of interest rather than the potential political consequences of particular lines.

Population is normally one of the most important factors when boundaries are drawn. Ridings need to remain reasonably balanced in population so that voters have broadly equal representation.

At the same time, boundary commissions traditionally attempt to keep communities with shared interests together instead of dividing neighbourhoods or regions between multiple electoral districts.

That principle has become an important part of the debate surrounding the competing Alberta proposals.

Kathleen Ganley, an NDP MLA who is participating in the legislative committee overseeing the process, has criticized the government’s decision to involve a pollster in the boundary review.

She has argued that voting intentions should not be used to determine where electoral boundaries are drawn and that the focus should instead remain on communities and effective representation.

The UCP MLA chairing the committee, Brandon Lunty, has defended the process, saying the review is intended to ensure Albertans receive effective representation as the province’s population grows.

The competing proposals have also drawn attention from University of Calgary political scientist Melanee Thomas.

Thomas said the outcome suggested by the majority map is relatively consistent with the recent Calgary Shaw byelection, while the much larger difference under the minority proposal demonstrates how strongly election results can change when boundaries are significantly redrawn.

She has also raised the question of whether proposed boundaries correspond naturally with existing neighbourhoods and communities.

That question is particularly relevant in Calgary, where rapid population growth has already changed the political and demographic landscape of many communities.

Alberta’s population continues to grow, and provincial projections anticipate further increases over the coming decades. The province reported continued population growth in the first quarter of 2026, including strong interprovincial migration.

The boundary review is therefore taking place against a backdrop of changing population patterns as well as an increasingly competitive political environment in Calgary.

The Calgary Shaw byelection provides an immediate example of how the same voters can produce different electoral possibilities depending on where the boundaries are drawn.

Under one proposed map, the riding remains intact enough for the recent NDP victory to be reflected in the projected result. Under the other, the riding disappears and its voters are distributed among several districts where past election results would have produced UCP victories.

The final outcome will depend on the boundaries eventually adopted, not on either of the current proposals.

The advisory panel is expected to submit its report on the new electoral boundaries by October 22. Until that process is completed, the political implications of the Calgary Shaw byelection will remain tied to a map that may not be used in the next provincial election.

What is clear is that the next Alberta election could be contested on a significantly different electoral map, particularly in Calgary, where even relatively small boundary changes could affect how communities are grouped and how previous voting patterns translate into provincial seats.

Courtesy: CBC