Canadian Travel to the U.S. Drops More Than Expected as Political Tensions Reshape Tourism Trends

A new study from the University of Toronto suggests the decline in Canadian travel to the United States is significantly greater than official border statistics initially indicated, highlighting the broader impact of political tensions and changing travel habits between the two neighbouring countries.

Researchers from the university’s School of Cities found that visits by Canadians to major U.S. metropolitan areas dropped by a median of 42 per cent, far exceeding the approximately 25 per cent decline suggested by traditional border crossing data collected by Statistics Canada.

Cellphone Data Reveals Deeper Drop in Cross-Border Travel

The research was conducted by Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung and Jeff Allen as part of the “Mapping Tariffs” project, which examines the effects of U.S. trade policies, annexation rhetoric and growing political tensions on Canadian travel and business patterns.

Using anonymized cellphone activity, the researchers tracked devices moving from Canada into the United States and back again between April 2024 and March 2026. Their findings suggest that Canadians are not only travelling less often to the United States, but are also visiting fewer destinations and spending less time during each trip.

Statistics Canada Reports Slight Recovery in April

While the new research indicates a substantial long-term decline, Statistics Canada reported that April 2026 marked the first year-over-year increase in Canadian return trips from the United States since December 2024.

The agency said return trips rose by 1.4 per cent compared with April 2025. However, when compared with April 2024, before political and trade tensions intensified, travel was still down by approximately 30 per cent.

U.S. Tourist Destinations Hit Hard

The study found that Myrtle Beach experienced the largest decline in Canadian visitors, with travel dropping by 65.4 per cent.

Several destinations in Florida were also among the hardest hit, including Orlando, Miami, Naples, Cape Coral, Panama City and North Port. Other affected cities included Yuma, Brownsville and San Francisco.

In total, 50 major U.S. metropolitan areas saw Canadian travel decline by at least 50 per cent during the study period.

Only Three U.S. Cities Recorded Growth

Out of 267 cities analyzed, only three recorded increases in Canadian visits: Portland, Gainesville and Cleveland.

The researchers noted that the data may include Canadians who had been temporarily living in the United States and later returned to Canada.

Political Tensions and Trade Disputes Influence Travel Decisions

The decline in Canadian travel comes amid a period of strained relations between Canada and the United States, driven in part by tariff disputes and provocative political rhetoric associated with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Researchers say these tensions have affected both leisure and business travel, with Canadian consumers increasingly opting for domestic destinations instead of U.S. vacations.

Domestic Tourism Gains Momentum

As fewer Canadians travel south of the border, domestic tourism within Canada has grown. Industry analysts say more Canadians are choosing to spend their vacation dollars at home, benefiting hotels, airlines and local attractions across the country.

The trend is expected to continue if economic uncertainty and political friction remain unresolved.

Long-Term Impact on U.S. Tourism

Tourism officials in popular American destinations are closely monitoring the decline, as Canadian visitors represent one of the largest and most reliable international markets for many U.S. cities and resort regions.

The new University of Toronto findings suggest that the financial impact on U.S. tourism could be significantly larger than initially estimated, especially if Canadian travel patterns do not return to pre-2024 levels.

Courtesy: ctvnews