Alberta Separatist Support Slips as Referendum Nears

Support for Alberta separation appears to have declined as the province moves closer to its Oct. 19 referendum, with a new poll showing a growing share of Albertans favouring remaining part of Canada.

A survey of 1,200 Albertans conducted between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21 found that 23 per cent would support beginning the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on Alberta independence. Meanwhile, 72 per cent said Alberta should remain a province of Canada, while four per cent were undecided.

The findings mark a modest shift from polling conducted in April. At that time, 27 per cent said they would support separation if a referendum were held, while 67 per cent said they would vote against it.

Pollster Janet Brown said the latest figures are part of a broader trend in which Albertans appear to be becoming more comfortable with their place within Canada.

Brown said attitudes toward Ottawa and the federal government, along with views of Prime Minister Mark Carney, may have contributed to the decline in support for separation.

The poll suggests that the debate has remained relatively stable over several years, despite months of campaigning, public demonstrations and efforts by both sides to persuade voters.

University of Alberta political science professor Lori Thorlakson said the approaching referendum may be prompting voters to consider the practical consequences of leaving Canada more closely.

She said the latest movement in public opinion may reflect a growing focus on what separation would actually involve rather than simply expressing dissatisfaction with the federal government.

Support for remaining in Canada was strongest in Alberta’s major cities, where 74 per cent of respondents favoured staying in the federation. In smaller communities, towns and rural areas, 69 per cent supported remaining in Canada.

The poll also examined how Albertans identify themselves in relation to the province and the country.

Since 2020, Brown’s polling has asked respondents whether they feel more attached to Alberta, more attached to Canada or equally attached to both.

The latest survey found a significant change compared with April. Twenty three per cent of Albertans said they felt more attached to Alberta than Canada, down from 33 per cent in April.

At the same time, 40 per cent said they felt more attached to Canada than Alberta, compared with 34 per cent in the earlier survey.

The shift comes amid changing relations between Alberta and the federal government. Ottawa has been moving toward designating a proposed West Coast pipeline project as being in the national interest, a development that has been closely watched in Alberta.

Brown also pointed to the continuing trade tensions between Canada and the United States and the political relationship between Canada and U.S. President Donald Trump as possible factors behind stronger Canadian identification among some Albertans.

The poll shows a particularly sharp divide among supporters of Alberta’s major political parties.

Among respondents who said they would support the Alberta NDP in a provincial election, 98 per cent said they would vote to keep Alberta in Canada.

The picture was considerably different among United Conservative Party supporters. Fifty three per cent said they would support the option to begin the process toward a separation referendum, while 40 per cent said they would vote to remain in Canada.

The numbers highlight the political challenge facing Premier Danielle Smith, who has publicly taken the position that Alberta should remain part of Canada while a significant portion of her party’s supporters favour exploring independence.

With the referendum only weeks away, Brown said the campaign is likely to focus increasingly on turnout rather than changing people’s minds.

Both sides have spent months organizing rallies, distributing campaign signs and increasing their presence across the province.

Separatist organizations have continued to expand their campaign efforts, including targeted social media messaging aimed at different groups of voters.

Keith Wilson, leader of Let Alberta Decide, has questioned the accuracy of some polling but said his organization is treating the numbers seriously from a campaign strategy perspective.

Wilson has also suggested that some Albertans may be reluctant to publicly express support for independence because of the polarization surrounding the issue.

On the federalist side, Alberta’s Voice has warned that supporters of remaining in Canada could become complacent if they believe polling showing a lead for the stay side makes the outcome certain.

Stephen Carter of Alberta’s Voice has argued that turnout could become especially important if the final margin narrows.

Other surveys conducted during the campaign have generally shown support for remaining in Canada ahead of support for separation, although the two sides remain divided over Alberta’s political and economic relationship with the rest of the country.

The latest poll was conducted by Edmonton based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research using a hybrid telephone and online methodology.

The survey included 1,200 Albertans and was designed to reflect regional, age and gender characteristics. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Margins of error for smaller groups within the survey are higher.

As the Oct. 19 vote approaches, both campaigns are expected to concentrate on turning their existing supporters into actual voters, making participation a central factor in the final weeks of the referendum campaign.

Courtesy: CBC