Pakistan Saudi Defence Pact Raises Risk of Islamabad Being Drawn Into Wider Middle East Conflict

Pakistan is facing growing pressure over its defence commitments to Saudi Arabia as fighting between Riyadh and Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthi movement intensifies, raising difficult questions about how far Islamabad may ultimately be drawn into the widening Middle East conflict.

The issue has become more sensitive since Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement in August. The pact states that an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against all, while also calling for closer defence cooperation. Pakistan has described the agreement as defensive in nature and consistent with the right of collective self defence under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

The agreement was initially presented in Islamabad as a strategic step aimed at strengthening regional security and deepening long standing ties among the three countries. But the security environment has changed rapidly. Saudi Arabia is now confronting renewed attacks from the Houthis, while the broader region remains affected by the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.

Pakistan’s position has therefore become increasingly complicated. Islamabad has close political, military and economic ties with Riyadh, while at the same time sharing a border and important diplomatic relationship with Iran.

Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi territory have placed the Makkah agreement under its first major test. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said earlier this month that continued attacks on Saudi Arabia could lead to activation of the agreement. However, Pakistani officials have also indicated that no immediate military response had been discussed under the pact.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office said on September 17 that the country remained committed to implementing both its bilateral strategic mutual defence arrangement with Saudi Arabia and the trilateral Makkah agreement. At the same time, officials have stressed that the agreement requires mechanisms and institutional arrangements before its provisions can be fully operationalized.

That distinction is important because the agreement does not automatically spell out how every type of attack would trigger a military response. The nature of any Saudi request, the location of the fighting and the form of assistance sought from Pakistan could all influence Islamabad’s response.

Saudi Arabia has substantial military resources, including advanced aircraft, missile systems and other sophisticated equipment. Pakistan, meanwhile, has extensive operational experience from decades of military deployments and conflicts, particularly along its own borders.

A direct Pakistani military role in Yemen would nevertheless carry serious consequences.

Pakistan has already faced major security challenges along its western frontier and remains under pressure from militant violence. A deployment of troops to another regional conflict could place additional demands on its armed forces while creating new diplomatic and security risks.

Relations with Iran would be another major concern. Tehran has historically maintained important links with Pakistan despite periodic tensions along their shared border. Any Pakistani military action against an Iran backed movement in Yemen could create further complications in that relationship.

Domestic political and sectarian sensitivities could also become significant. Pakistan has a large Shia population, and any perception that Islamabad had joined a military campaign against an Iran aligned force could provoke political opposition or public protests.

The security situation along the Pakistan Iran border would also require close attention. Balochistan has experienced a long running insurgency and remains strategically sensitive because of its location between Iran, Afghanistan and the Arabian Sea.

Afghanistan adds another layer of uncertainty. Pakistan is already dealing with serious tensions with the Taliban government and militant threats along the Afghanistan Pakistan border. Any deterioration in Pakistan’s relationship with Iran could create additional complications because Tehran maintains its own relations with actors in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s economic dependence on Saudi Arabia makes the decision even more difficult. Riyadh has provided Islamabad with financial support, investment and other forms of economic assistance at critical moments. The Saudi relationship therefore carries significance far beyond military cooperation.

At the same time, Pakistan has historically tried to avoid becoming directly involved in conflicts between major Middle Eastern powers. Islamabad has previously attempted to maintain working relationships with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, while repeatedly calling for regional dialogue and peaceful solutions.

The government has publicly emphasized its commitment to Saudi Arabia. Senior Pakistani officials have described the relationship as strategic and have reaffirmed the country’s obligations under the defence agreements.

Saudi Arabia is also seeking support from other partners as its confrontation with the Houthis develops. Türkiye, the third member of the Makkah agreement, has separately expressed readiness to support Saudi Arabia under the pact, although the precise nature of any military involvement remains unclear.

For Islamabad, the central question is therefore not simply whether Pakistan has a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. It is how the agreement would be interpreted if Saudi Arabia moved from defending its territory against missile and drone attacks to conducting a wider military campaign inside Yemen.

That distinction could determine whether Pakistan provides diplomatic backing, intelligence, training, defensive assistance or potentially deploys combat forces.

Pakistani officials have repeatedly emphasized that the Makkah agreement is defensive rather than an instrument aimed at another country. The Foreign Ministry has also stressed Pakistan’s commitment to sovereignty, international law and peaceful resolution of disputes.

For now, Islamabad appears to be trying to balance its obligations to Riyadh with its broader regional interests. Pakistan wants to reassure Saudi Arabia that its strategic partnership remains strong without unnecessarily expanding its own military commitments.

The challenge could become substantially greater if Houthi attacks continue, Saudi Arabia expands its military operations or Riyadh formally requests military assistance under the Makkah agreement.

Such a development would force Pakistan to weigh its treaty commitments against its economic circumstances, domestic security challenges, relationship with Iran and the potential consequences of entering another Middle Eastern conflict.

The Makkah agreement was designed to strengthen collective defence among Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. The escalating confrontation in and around Yemen is now testing how that commitment will work in practice.

Courtesy: theguardian